Value Hunter – Round 8
Just having a look over the weekend trying to find some value on the punt.
3 Value Margins
Raiders ($2.75/+6) take on the Rabbitohs ($1.45/-6) and I’m picking an upset in tonight’s match.
Raiders have only lost 3 of their last 10 matches against the Rabbitohs including 3 of the last 4 in Canberra.
Average margin over these 10 games is 15 points, but if you take out a blowout win of 54-4 in 2016, and a blowout loss of 42-22 in 2018, it brings it down to 8 points.
Their last 4 matches in Canberra have been decided by 12 points or less, with the last 3 all being decided by 6 points (2 wins and loss for the Raiders).
The 8.5 Tri Bet option is paying $2.20 and a bit safer, but I love the $3.60 value in a 1-12 win by the Raiders.
The Panthers ($1.18/-14.5) whooped the Sea Eagles ($5.00/+14.5) earlier this year 46-6, only there was one major piece missing.
Now while he is back and has the Sea Eagles humming on a 3 game win streak, I don’t think they will be the team to end the Panthers dominant run so far.
Panthers winning margins over the past 3 games against the Sea Eagles has been 24 points, but they were all without Manly’s number 1 guy.
The 5 games prior that included Turbo, resulted in 3 wins and 2 losses for the Panthers, with an average margin of 9.6 points, all of Panthers wins being less than 12 points.
Good enough for me at $3.25.
Cowboys ($2.35/+4) are 3 on the trot with a big win last week against the Raiders.
Warriors ($1.60/-4) have been hot and cold but have showed some brilliance the few weeks.
I love the move of Walsh to the halves and RTS back to fullback. Their combo is going to be deadly.
Warriors sit first for post contact metres and set completion, while the Cowboys are first in errors and 3rd for missed tackles.
I can just see the Warriors tearing through the middle of the park, completing their sets and allowing Walsh and RTS to create havoc out the back for a huge win.
Warriors 13+ @ $3.10
3 Teams on the line
Raiders $2.75 H2H (see above) or take them with the +6
Broncos with the +11.5 start. History is against me here with their last 3 losses against the Titans all being 12 points or over, but just have a feeling there won’t be a 4th ($3.50 H2H is great value too).
Warriors -4.0 (again as above).
Cody Walker @ 2.25
Walker LOOOOOVES the Raiders scoring in 4 of the last 6 matches.
Cameron Munster @ $2.80
Munster scored in this game last year, and the Sharks have allowed 3 tries from halves in their last 3 games.
Isaiah Papali’i @ $2.50
5 tries in 4 games…do I need to say more?
All odds via Sportsbet. Gamble responsibly.
– Uncle Roasty
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